Because a large part of our business is helping people that are in foreclosure (and investors that purchase pre-foreclosure properties) we have been tracking the amount of default notices that are recorded in Shasta County.  Since last year we have noticed a large increase in foreclosure notices.   As an example, for the month of June 2008 we have seen an 88% increase in foreclosure filings compared to June of last year.

88 % increase in Notice of Default Filings compared to June 2007!
There were a total of 86 notices filed in June ’07 and 162 notices filed in ‘08

The amount of foreclosure filings for the week of July 18, 2008 through July 25 is 43, the week before was 42.  At this rate, July is on track to meet or beat June’s number of 162 notice of default filings.

Whether it’s through pre-foreclosure sale, Bank Real Estate Owned (REO) or bankruptcy, most of the homes that enter foreclosure end up on the market.  With our current inventory at 1,930 homes and an average of 167 homes selling over the last three months, inventory should continue to climb.

We feel these are important stats because; as the foreclosure starts go down there will be less distress sales on the market and will provide an opportunity for prices to stabilize.

Below is a chart of Shasta County housing data compiled July 24, 2008.  This chart is a good indicator of year of year inventory levels.

	New Listings	Active Listings	Sold Listings	Months Inventory
Jun-08	434	1933	151	12.8
May-08	408	1876	184	10.2
Apr-08	483	1830	166	11.02
Mar-08	425	1768	165	10.72
Feb-08	351	1775	115	15.43
Jan-08	412	1796	108	16.63
Dec-07	227	1901	119	15.97
Nov-07	324	1998	130	15.37
Oct-07	351	2140	160	13.38
Sep-07	383	2214	146	15.16
Aug-07	487	2249	214	10.51
Jul-07	517	2227	188	11.85
Jun-07	561	2157	243	8.88
May-07	579	2049	211	9.71
Apr-07	663	1910	205	9.32
Mar-07	533	1723	216	7.98
Feb-07	440	1689	179	9.44
Jan-07	492	1666	133	12.53
Dec-06	283	1784	213	8.38
Nov-06	320	1989	173	11.5
Oct-06	451	2059	186	11.07
Sep-06	493	2146	188	11.41
Aug-06	596	2154	199	10.82
Jul-06	590	1991	216	9.22

Currently we have 1936 homes active in the MLS which is off our 52 week high of 2249 in August last year. The market has been fairly stable with fewer homes coming on the market and fewer homes selling than this time last year.   We currently have 398 homes under contract with the average days on market of 134 days.

The inventory stats are not far off of last year at this time.  There are a lot of foreclosed home coming on the market but the sellers who do not need to sell are staying put.  This is keeping the inventory numbers close to last years.  We do expect numbers to climb through the rest of the year due to the spike in foreclosures and demand for homes to slow as the season winds down. 

A good indicator of were inventory is going will be the amount of default notices we receive in the next few months, we will be watching closely.